It's Getting Late

Locked in a hotly-contested presidential campaign and fearing an October surprise that they may be unable to control or spin, Democrats and Republicans are tempted to do something, anything -- unleash Dick Cheney, bring back Mike McCurry -- to give their campaigns a shot of adrenaline heading into the home stretch. Although ultimately unsuccessful, one of the most intriguing political Hail Marys of the last century took place on September 30, 1968 in Salt Lake City.

The Democratic candidate that year was Hubert Humphrey, VP to embattled President Lyndon Johnson. LBJ had been so weakened by the strong New Hampshire primary finish of Sen. Eugene McCarthy that he stunned the nation by announcing in March that he wouldn't run again and would spend his remaining time trying to resolve the Vietnam quagmire.

LBJ's move cleared the way for Humphrey to campaign to succeed him. Circumstance made him the nominee when McCarthy faded and Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June. Humphrey yearned to oppose the war, but he couldn't bear to abandon a wartime president, one who also had warned him what he'd do to Humphrey's tender parts were he to leave the reservation.

The antiwar movement was in full chorus during the campaign. Former supporters of Kennedy and McCarthy excoriated Humphrey as a murderer and a racist at the tumultuous Democratic convention in Chicago and then during the campaign, for not being willing to break with the war policy. Stolidly, the "happy warrior" backed LBJ in speech after speech, becoming more and more worn down by the vitriol his message seemed to evoke.

Then in late September, he spoke in Sioux Falls, S.D. and, in frustration, pledged that "Come January, it's a new ball game. Then I will make peace." "Engineers and farmers jumped to their feet and cheered," recalls Humphrey biographer Carl Solberg. The same message won a standing ovation in Louisville the next day. But it was Sept. 27, only six weeks before the election, and staffers handed Humphrey polls showing him 15 points behind. "If the polls are really what they seem to be, I don't stand a chance. I don 't give a shit any more, I'm saying what I want to say."

He got his chance when the campaign bought a half hour on NBC TV on Sept. 30. After agonizing through the night with top aides over the content of the speech, Humphrey delivered a hard-hitting call to halt the bombing in Vietnam. Simultaneously, he removed the vice presidential seal from his campaign plane and, from then on, campaigned as his own man.

The response was electrifying, although a number of cynics didn't take Humphrey at his word. But as he repeated the theme again and again in subsequent days to newly-cheering crowds, his poll numbers began to rise. LBJ was noncommittal about his veep's speech but failed to campaign for him until the very eve before the election. By then, Humphrey had closed to within two points of Republican Richard Nixon.

In the end, Humphrey lost the election, 43.4 per cent of the popular vote going to Nixon and 42.7 per cent to Humphrey. The consensus of those closest to the campaign was that had the campaign lasted another three days, Humphrey would have won.

The parallel of the Humphrey/Nixon campaign to that of Kerry/Bush is striking, with many Democrats calling for John Kerry to adopt a harder-hitting, more combative style on the stump. A casual observer might say, "Well, it's early yet." But students of history realize it takes time to turn a lumbering campaign around, and the election is only 47 days away.